Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 57.68%. A win for Borussia Monchengladbach had a probability of 22.22% and a draw had a probability of 20.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.12%) and 3-1 (6.97%). The likeliest Borussia Monchengladbach win was 1-2 (5.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.5%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.