Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 11

Nov 12, 2023 at 2.30pm UK

BayArena

B. Leverkusen
4 - 0
Union Berlin

Grimaldo (23'), Odilon (57'), Tah (73'), Tella (83')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Ronnow (74')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Bundesliga clash between Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Qarabag 0-1 B. Leverkusen
Thursday, November 9 at 5.45pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Union Berlin

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Napoli 1-1 Union Berlin
Wednesday, November 8 at 5.45pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 69.03%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Union Berlin had a probability of 13.29%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.65%) and 1-0 (8.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.18%), while for a Union Berlin win it was 1-2 (3.83%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.

Result
Bayer Leverkusen	Draw	Union Berlin
69.03% ( -0.28)	17.68% ( 0.09)	13.29% ( 0.19)

Both teams to score 55.1% (

0.25)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.02% (

0.04)

35.98% (

-0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

41.92% (

0.04)

58.08% (

-0.04)

Bayer Leverkusen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.56% (

-0.05)

9.44% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

68.29% (

-0.13)

31.71% (

0.13)

Union Berlin Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.84% (

0.31)

39.16% (

-0.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.13% (

0.29)

75.87% (

-0.29)

Score Analysis

Bayer Leverkusen 69.02%

Union Berlin 13.29%

Draw 17.68%

Bayer Leverkusen	Draw	Union Berlin
2-0 @ 10.29% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 9.65% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 8.72% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 8.1% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 7.6% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 4.78% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 4.48% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 3.56% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 2.26% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 2.12% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 2.1% ( 0.01) 5-2 @ 0.99% ( 0) Other @ 4.37% Total : 69.02%	1-1 @ 8.18% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 4.53% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 3.7% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.11% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.17% Total : 17.68%	1-2 @ 3.83% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 3.47% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 1.62% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.41% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 1.2% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.76% Total : 13.29%