Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hoffenheim win with a probability of 37.75%. A win for Union Berlin had a probability of 37.64% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hoffenheim win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.81%) and 0-2 (5.73%). The likeliest Union Berlin win was 2-1 (8.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hoffenheim would win this match.