Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heidenheim win with a probability of 49.81%. A win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 26.29% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heidenheim win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.56%) and 2-0 (8.16%). The likeliest Hoffenheim win was 1-2 (6.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Hoffenheim would win this match.