Bristol Rovers and Crawley Town meet at the Memorial Stadium on Saturday in what is, as things stand, a League Two relegation battle.
The two sides have been struggling in their league campaigns thus far, but experienced very different results in their most recent respective games in the EFL Trophy.
Match preview
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A run of five consecutive losses to finish last season cemented Bristol Rovers' relegation and they have not adapted to life in League Two in the manner that manager Joey Barton would have hoped so far this campaign.
They appear to have carried their League One form with them and have amassed just four points from their opening five games.
Things are potentially turning around for the Gas, though. A 1-1 draw away at Barrow - albeit against 10 men - at least stopped the rot and they followed that up with an impressive win in the EFL Trophy.
Not many backed Rovers to get the better of a team who last season topped the league they are currently struggling in, but goals from Sam Nicholson and Harvey Saunders saw them clinch a 2-0 win against Cheltenham Town.
The owners have backed Barton as the man to turn their fortunes around and perhaps he is starting to justify their faith in him. They will hope he continues to do so in what is a very winnable game this weekend.
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As mentioned, Crawley were not so successful in their opening game of the aforementioned tournament.
Whilst their opponents Charlton Athletic are also struggling in the league somewhat, they are doing so in the division above, and this was always likely to be a tough game for John Yems's side.
Nonetheless, a 6-1 defeat will have stung. The game was effectively over after just 25 minutes, with Charlton 3-0 up, and a Kwesi Appiah penalty will have provided little consolation as Crawley conceded six for the second time in three games.
That is a worrying statistic for the Reds, but they do have their most recent League Two game - a 0-0 stalemate with Northampton Town - as a reminder that they are capable of defending on occasion.
Yems will presumably be focusing more on that than their recent record against Rovers in his team talk, with Crawley having lost three of their previous four encounters.
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Team News
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Rovers made no fewer than three deadline-day signings, bringing in free agent Junior Brown, Antony Evans from the Bundesliga and journeyman Leon Clarke, who was playing in the Premier League for Sheffield United just two years ago.
It will surely be too early for any of that trio to feature on Saturday, but there will be holes to fill in the squad.
Josh Barrett was released during the week, and joins Brandon Hanlan and Jack Baldwin as recent departures.
After making a large number of changes for the thrashing at the hands of Charlton, Yems is likely to revert to a more familiar lineup this weekend.
Meanwhile, young winger James Tilley has departed on loan, and Amrit Bansal-McNulty has joined on a four-month loan from Queens Park Rangers.
Bristol Rovers possible starting lineup:
Belshaw; Hughes, Kilgour, Taylor; Grant, Finley, Anderson, Rodman; Spence, Nicholson; Collins
Crawley Town possible starting lineup:
Morris; Davies, Craig, Francillette, Dallison; Frost, Hessenthaler, Powell, Ferry; Ashford, Nadesan
We say: Bristol Rovers 2-1 Crawley Town
Crawley's current defensive record is impossible to ignore and, whilst it is hard to know which version of Barton's side will turn up this weekend, they look the more likely side to leave with three points.
Top tip
James Mackenzie
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 36.71%. A win for Bristol Rovers had a probability of 35.75% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.94%) and 0-2 (6.62%). The likeliest Bristol Rovers win was 1-0 (10.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.
