Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 52.66%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Vitoria had a probability of 22.21%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.1%) and 1-2 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.9%), while for a Vitoria win it was 1-0 (7.49%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.