Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 50.49%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for Coritiba had a probability of 22.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.29%) and 2-1 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.42%), while for a Coritiba win it was 0-1 (8.61%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bragantino would win this match.