Brasileiro Gameweek 33
Oct 29, 2026 12.30am
Arena Fonte Nova

Bahia vs Sao Paulo - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Bahia

All competitions
Last game
Oct 25, 2026 1.00am
Santos 1 - 1 Bahia
Goals scored
45
Top scorer
Luciano Juba

Sao Paulo

All competitions
Last game
Oct 24, 2026 8.30pm
Mirassol 1 - 1 Sao Paulo
Goals scored
37
Top scorer
Luciano

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Bahia win with a probability of 56.94%. A draw has a probability of 23.49% and a win for Sao Paulo has a probability of 19.57%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win is 1-0 with a probability of 12.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (10.42%) and 2-0 (10.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.06%) , while for a Sao Paulo win it is 0-1 (6.04%).

Result

Bahia 56.94% ▼ (-0.43)
Draw 23.49% ▲ (+0.18)
Sao Paulo 19.57% ▲ (+0.25)

Both Teams to Score: 

51.12% ▲ (+0.17)

Goals

Over 1.5 74.88% ▲ (+0.24)
Under 1.5 25.12% ▼ (-0.24)
Over 2.5 50.82% ▼ (-0.21)
Under 2.5 49.18% ▲ (+0.21)
Over 3.5 28.38% ▲ (+0.26)
Under 3.5 71.62% ▼ (-0.26)
Over 4.5 16.56% ▲ (+0.15)
Under 4.5 83.44% ▼ (-0.16)

First Half Winner

Bahia 43.72% ▼ (-0.29)
Draw 39.83% ▲ (+0.08)
Sao Paulo 16.45% ▲ (+0.22)

Team To Score First

Bahia 65.17% ▲ (+0.86)
No Goal 6.99% ▼ (-0.19)
Sao Paulo 27.84% ▼ (-0.68)

Corners

Over 8 68.14% ▼ (-1.44)
Equal 8 9.77% ▲ (+0.05)
Under 8 22.1% ▲ (+1.41)
Over 9 57.34% ▼ (-1.36)
Equal 9 10.79% ▼ (-0.10)
Under 9 31.86% ▲ (+1.44)
Over 10.5 46.38% ▼ (-1.15)
Under 10.5 53.62% ▲ (+1.15)

Bahia Goals

Over 1.5 51.8% ▼ (-0.18)
Under 1.5 48.2% ▲ (+0.18)
Over 2.5 25.01% ▼ (-0.28)
Under 2.5 74.99% ▲ (+0.29)
Over 3.5 9.63% ▼ (-0.09)
Under 3.5 90.37% ▲ (+0.10)

Sao Paulo Goals

Over 0.5 55.19% ▲ (+0.43)
Under 0.5 44.81% ▼ (-0.43)
Over 1.5 22.07% ▲ (+0.36)
Under 1.5 77.93% ▼ (-0.35)
Over 2.5 6.38% ▲ (+0.22)
Under 2.5 93.62% ▼ (-0.22)
Over 3.5 1.51% ▲ (+0.07)
Under 3.5 98.49% ▼ (-0.07)

Score analysis

Bahia 56.95%
Draw 23.49%
Sao Paulo 19.57%
Bahia
1-0 @ 12.1% ▼ (-0.05)
2-1 @ 10.42% ▼ (-0.16)
2-0 @ 10.29% ▲ (+0.11)
3-0 @ 5.84% ▼ (-0.25)
3-1 @ 5.6% ▼ (-0.02)
3-2 @ 3.1% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 9.6% ▼ (-0.08)
Total : 56.95%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.06% ▲ (+0.25)
0-0 @ 6.99% ▼ (-0.19)
2-2 @ 4.57% ▲ (+0.06)
Other @ 0.03% ▼ (-0.03)
Total : 23.49%
Sao Paulo
0-1 @ 6.04% ▼ (-0.01)
1-2 @ 5.33% ▲ (+0.05)
0-2 @ 2.69% ▲ (+0.07)
1-3 @ 1.66% ▲ (+0.09)
2-3 @ 1.51% ▲ (+0.11)
Other @ 1.48% ▲ (+0.09)
Total : 19.57%

Head to Head

Brasileiro Gameweek 14
May 3, 2026 8.00pm
2
2
HT : 1 0
FT Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo
  • Artur 17' goal
  • Cédric Soares 50' yellowcard
  • Lucas Moura  63' yellowcard
  • Enzo Díaz 71' yellowcard
  • Luan 71' yellowcard
  • Ferreirinha 71' yellowcard
  • Ferreirinha 73' goal
  • Lucas Rodrigues Moura, Marcelinho↓ 85' yellowcard
  • 85' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Mateo Sanabria 56'
  • goal Luciano Juba 62'
  • yellowcard Ademir 82'
  • yellowcard Michel Araújo 82'
  • yellowcard Rodrigo Nestor 82'
  • yellowcard Everaldo 82'
  • goal Erick 90'+7'
Brasileiro
Oct 26, 2025 1.30am
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Brasileiro Gameweek 11
May 31, 2025 10.30pm
2
1
HT : 0 0
FT Arena Fonte Nova
  • Willian Jose 53' goal
  • Willian Jose 73' goal
  • Kayky 87' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Luciano 59'
  • goal Luciano 85'
  • yellowcard Rodriguinho 90'+8'
Brasileiro Gameweek 32
Nov 6, 2024 12.30am
0
3
HT : 0 2
FT Arena Fonte Nova
  • Jean Lucas 51' yellowcard
  • Jean Lucas 51' yellowcard
  • Kanu 61' yellowcard
  • Kanu 61' yellowcard
  • Gabriel Xavier 79' yellowcard
  • Gabriel Xavier 79' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Marcos Antonio 35'
  • yellowcard Marcos Antonio 35'
  • goal Luiz Gustavo 40'
  • goal Luiz Gustavo 40'
  • yellowcard Sabino 55'
  • yellowcard Sabino 55'
  • goal Wellington Rato 66'
  • goal Wellington Rato 66'
  • goal Lucas Moura 90'+1'
  • goal Lucas Moura 90'+1'
Brasileiro Gameweek 13
Jun 30, 2024 8.00pm
3
1
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Cicero Pompeu de Toledo
  • Jonathan Calleri 30' goal
  • Ferreira 32' goal
  • Ferreira 34' yellowcard
  • Maximiliano Cuberas 34' yellowcard
  • Luciano 65' goal
  • Luciano 65' yellowcard
  • Alisson 86' yellowcard
  • Luiz Gustavo 89' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Kanu 44'
  • goal Gilberto 49'
Brasileiro Gameweek 36
Nov 29, 2023 11.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Arena Fonte Nova
  • Yago 54' yellowcard
  • Kanu 87' yellowcard
  • Rafael Ratao 90' yellowcard
  • Lucas Mugni 90'+2' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Lucas Beraldo 81'
  • yellowcard Talles Costa 90'+1'
  • goal Caio Paulista 90'+7'
  • yellowcard Caio Paulista 90'+8'