Brasileiro Gameweek 28
Sep 20, 2026 11.30pm
Arena de Baixada

Athletico Paranaense vs Bahia - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Athletico Paranaense

All competitions
Last game
Sep 12, 2026 1.00am
Coritiba 3 - 3 Athletico PR
Goals scored
41
Top scorer
Kevin Viveros

Bahia

All competitions
Last game
Sep 15, 2026 12.00am
Bahia 2 - 1 Remo
Goals scored
42
Top scorer
Luciano Juba

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 45.86%. A win for Bahia has a probability of 27.26% and a draw has a probability of 26.88%.

The most likely scoreline for a Athletico Paranaense win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.85%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest Bahia win is 0-1 (7.99%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.98%).

Result

Athletico Paranaense 45.86% (-0.33)
Draw 26.88% (+0.02)
Bahia 27.26% (+0.34)

Both Teams to Score: 

52.89% (-0.25)

Goals

Over 1.5 72.6% (-0.17)
Under 1.5 27.4% (+0.17)
Over 2.5 47.29% (-0.19)
Under 2.5 52.71% (+0.19)
Over 3.5 25.44% (-0.24)
Under 3.5 74.56% (+0.24)
Over 4.5 13.65% (-0.12)
Under 4.5 86.35% (+0.12)

First Half Winner

Athletico Paranaense 35.47% (+0.45)
Draw 44.84% (-0.32)
Bahia 19.69% (-0.12)

Team To Score First

Athletico Paranaense 58.43% (+0.21)
No Goal 7.78% (+0.09)
Bahia 33.79% (-0.29)

Corners

Over 8 60.71% (-0.57)
Equal 8 10.55% (+0.08)
Under 8 28.74% (+0.49)
Over 9 49.72% (-0.60)
Equal 9 10.99% (+0.03)
Under 9 39.29% (+0.57)
Over 10.5 39.16% (-0.58)
Under 10.5 60.84% (+0.58)

Athletico Paranaense Goals

Over 1.5 42.35% (-0.41)
Under 1.5 57.65% (+0.41)
Over 2.5 17.33% (-0.29)
Under 2.5 82.67% (+0.29)
Over 3.5 5.92% (-0.12)
Under 3.5 94.08% (+0.11)

Bahia Goals

Over 0.5 62.92% (+0.11)
Under 0.5 37.08% (-0.11)
Over 1.5 27.85% (+0.16)
Under 1.5 72.15% (-0.15)
Over 2.5 9.34% (+0.10)
Under 2.5 90.66% (-0.11)
Over 3.5 2.47% (+0.05)
Under 3.5 97.53% (-0.04)

Score analysis

Athletico Paranaense 45.85%
Draw 26.88%
Bahia 27.27%
Athletico Paranaense
1-0 @ 11.63% (+0.03)
2-1 @ 9.85% (-0.06)
2-0 @ 8.06% (-0.02)
3-1 @ 4.25% (-0.09)
3-0 @ 3.8% (-0.05)
3-2 @ 2.45% (-0.03)
Other @ 5.81% (-0.12)
Total : 45.85%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.98%
0-0 @ 7.78% (+0.09)
2-2 @ 5.1% (-0.06)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 26.88%
Bahia
0-1 @ 7.99% (+0.11)
1-2 @ 6.7% (+0.09)
0-2 @ 4.26% (+0.05)
1-3 @ 2.44% (+0.03)
2-3 @ 2.01% (-0.02)
0-3 @ 1.51% (+0.06)
Other @ 2.36% (+0.05)
Total : 27.27%

Head to Head

Brasileiro Gameweek 9
Apr 2, 2026 12.00am
3
0
HT : 2 0
FT Arena Fonte Nova
  • Everaldo 3' goal
  • Everaldo 35' goal
  • Erick 60' yellowcard
  • Ademir 68' yellowcard
  • Michel Araújo 68' yellowcard
  • Willian José  85' yellowcard
  • Iago 85' yellowcard
  • Luciano Juba 90'+3' goal
  • yellowcard Bruno Zapelli 46'
  • yellowcard Léo Derik 46'
  • yellowcard Juan Portilla 46'
  • yellowcard João Cruz 66'
  • yellowcard Bruninho 78'
Brasileiro Gameweek 35
Nov 24, 2024 7.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Arena Fonte Nova
  • Gabriel Teixeira 90'+3' goal
  • Gabriel Xavier 90'+3' yellowcard
  • goal Nikao 61'
  • yellowcard Mycael Pontes Moreira 72'
  • yellowcard Fernando 74'
Brasileiro Gameweek 16
Jul 10, 2024 11.00pm
1
3
HT : 0 2
FT Arena de Baixada
  • Fernandinho 36' yellowcard
  • Thiago Heleno 49' yellowcard
  • Lucas Di Yorio 61' goal
  • goal Everaldo Stum 9'
  • goal Gabriel Teixeira 15'
  • yellowcard Everaldo Stum 40'
  • goal Luciano 78'
  • yellowcard Marcos Victor 79'
  • yellowcard Danilo Fernandes 79'
  • yellowcard Rezende 90'+5'
Brasileiro Gameweek 34
Nov 12, 2023 9.30pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Arena Fonte Nova
  • David Duarte 65' yellowcard
  • Everaldo Stum 73' goal
  • Everaldo Stum 77' yellowcard
  • Kanu 80' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Hugo Moura 29'
  • yellowcard Caca 46'
  • yellowcard Agustin Canobbio 71'
  • yellowcard Fernandinho 73'
  • goal Agustin Canobbio 87'
Brasileiro Gameweek 15
Jul 16, 2023 10.30pm
2
0
HT : 2 0
FT Arena de Baixada
  • Vitor Roque 24' goal
  • Erick 35' goal
Copa do Brasil
Jul 13, 2022 12.30am
2
1
HT : 0 1
FT Arena da Baixada
  • Pablo 60' yellowcard
  • Erick 78' goal
  • Romulo Cardoso 90'+4' goal
  • Romulo Cardoso 90'+4' goal
  • goal Davo 5'
  • yellowcard Gabriel Lhman Xavier 53'
  • yellowcard Gabriel Xavier 53'
  • yellowcard Vitor Jacare 67'