Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 49.88%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Bragantino had a probability of 24.19%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.58%) and 2-1 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.26%), while for a Bragantino win it was 0-1 (8.12%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletico Paranaense would win this match.