Two of the biggest underachievers in the Bundesliga this season go head to head on Saturday, with Borussia Monchengladbach hosting Wolfsburg at Borussia-Park.
The hosts were humiliated in a thumping defeat last weekend, whilst the visitors also suffered a loss themselves after previously looking to revive their disappointing season in prior weeks.
Match preview
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In a season of many lows so far, few could have been lower than the dreadful showing that Gladbach put in at Signal Iduna Park against Borussia Dortmund last weekend.
Adi Hutter has been under some severe pressure on numerous occasions already this campaign, but that pressure is greater than ever following the 6-0 defeat in the Borussen derby.
Die Fohlen actually started fairly brightly following their 3-2 win over struggling Augsburg on the prior weekend, which was their first in five games, but once former player Marco Reus opened the scoring midway through the first half, the Gladbach back line was dismantled at an alarming rate.
Reus came away with two goals and three assists in the end, as he, and their former boss Marco Rose, came back to haunt Hutter's side devastatingly.
Saturday's hosts occupy 13th spot as a result of the heavy defeat, with just four points keeping them above Augsburg in the relegation playoff spot, and seven between themselves and Stuttgart in the automatic relegation places.
Many at Gladbach will already be looking forward to next season with or without Hutter at the helm, but there remains plenty of work to be done between now and the end of the season for a side that is expected to challenge for the European spots, to avoid a catastrophic battle to avoid the drop.
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Meanwhile, after finishing fourth last campaign, Wolfsburg too have endured a disappointing campaign up to this point, with Saturday's visitors making the trip to Borussia-Park just one place, and one point, above their hosts.
Florian Kohfeldt's side had looked to be on the up heading into their fixture with Hoffenheim last Saturday, with back-to-back victories over Greuther Furth and Eintracht Frankfurt in their two previous outings being their first wins since the beginning of November.
However, Die Wolfe returned to losing ways at the Volkswagen Arena, despite January-arrival Jonas Wind providing his side with a first-half lead with an excellent curling finish to mark his first goal for the club.
A quickfire double from their visitors inside the last 20 minutes resulted in the defeat, leaving Wolfsburg rueing some missed opportunities to have killed off the game earlier during the encounter.
Should Wolfsburg manage to overcome an opponent for the first time in five meetings when they make the trip on Saturday, they could put a comfortable eight-point gap between themselves and the relegation playoff spot in the hope of easing any lingering fears of a shock relegation battle.
A tight top half of the table as a result of numerous teams enduring inconsistent Bundesliga campaigns so far means that Wolfsburg's hopes of a late charge towards the European places remain a possibility, but unless Kohfeldt's side can put together a strong run of form in the coming weeks, they are likely to fail in their pursuit of European qualification of any kind come May.
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Team News
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Hutter could look to make a few changes in the wake of their humiliation last weekend, but he will still be unable to call on the services of his captain Lars Stindl.
He remains sidelined due to a knee injury, and Mamadou Doucoure joins his skipper on the list of absentees due to a muscle problem, with Tony Jantschke likely to as well due to a bruised knee.
Young wing-backs Luca Netz and Joe Scally will be among those pushing for starts, as Hutter searches for a successful starting 11.
As for the visitors, Kohfeldt could well name an unchanged lineup despite overseeing his side fall to defeat against Hoffenheim last week.
For much of the encounter, Wolfsburg performed well, and a front three of Maximilian Philipp, Max Kruse and Wind looks likely once more.
Paulo Otavio, William and Xaver Schlager remain out for the long term, whilst Lukas Nmecha nears a return from a broken ankle, but Saturday will come too soon for him, as well as young defender Micky van de Ven.
Borussia Monchengladbach possible starting lineup:
Sommer; Ginter, Friedrich, Elvedi; Scally, Kramer, Neuhaus, Netz; Hofmann, Plea; Embolo
Wolfsburg possible starting lineup:
Casteels; Lacroix, Bornauw, Brooks; Baku, Arnold, Vranckx, Roussillon; Philipp, Kruse; Wind
We say: Borussia Monchengladbach 1-1 Wolfsburg
Both of these sides head into their meeting low on confidence following poor campaigns up to this point, with lingering fears of a relegation scrap hanging over their heads.
As a result, we are predicting a nervy and tight encounter on Saturday, with very little to separate the two sides, so a draw seems a likely outcome.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Monchengladbach win with a probability of 55.94%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Wolfsburg had a probability of 21.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Monchengladbach win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.88%) and 2-0 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.7%), while for a Wolfsburg win it was 0-1 (5.8%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
