Borussia Dortmund host Schalke 04 in the 2020-21 Bundesliga on Saturday in the 157th meeting of the Revierderby.
The two Ruhr-based arch-rivals could hardly be in more contrasting form at the moment, with Dortmund third on nine points after four games and Schalke just one place off the bottom on a solitary point.
Match preview
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Dortmund showed their undoubted superiority over Schalke in the most recent meeting between the two sides, with a 4-0 victory in May behind closed doors. The disappointingly one-sided affair was the first televised match in a major European league after the international lockdown had taken place in response to the coronavirus pandemic.
Unfortunately, with coronavirus cases reportedly on the rise in the area, only 300 fans will be allowed into the ground this time around, but it should still be a hotly contested affair as always.
BVB's secured their first win at Hoffenheim since 2012 last weekend, and it was a richly-deserved victory after a controlled performance. Captain Marco Reus and Erling Braut Haaland both came off the bench to combine for Lucien Favre's side's only goal of the game in a 1-0 win.
However, their defensive vulnerabilities were showcased by the 3-1 defeat at Lazio in the Champions League in midweek, with former player Ciro Immobile coming back to bite them with the opening goal in the game. Midfielder Thomas Delaney deputised in defence, so Favre will certainly be hoping he has more first-team defenders to choose from against Schalke.
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It has certainly been a nightmare calendar year for Schalke, who have now astonishingly failed to win their last 20 Bundesliga matches stretching back to January.
Former Huddersfield Town manager David Wagner was sacked after the 3-1 defeat to Werder Bremen last month, with Manuel Baum taking his place. The 41-year-old former Augsburg manager did at least guide his new side to their first point of the season via a 1-1 draw with Union Berlin at the weekend.
It was arguably a fairly fortunate result, though, with Union Berlin dominating the majority of the match. Schalke's first shot on target came as late as the 68th minute, with goalkeeper Frederik Ronnow proving an inspired replacement for the injured Ralf Fahrmann, making a string of superb saves to keep Baum's side in the game.
Around 80 Schalke fans gathered outside the Veltins Arena after the draw, with their spokesperson demanding nothing less than "200% from everyone" for the upcoming derby.
With the likes of Haaland, Reus and Jadon Sancho in opposition, however, they may require a lot more than effort in order to record a surprise result.
Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga form: WLWW
Borussia Dortmund form (all competitions): WLLWWL
Schalke 04 Bundesliga form: LLLD
Team News
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BVB will remain without Thorgan Hazard, Marcel Schmelzer, Dan-Axel Zagadou and Nico Schulz for the derby, but Favre is likely to bring Manuel Akanji back into the defence in place of Delaney after his coronavirus quarantine period lapsed last week.
The Dortmund boss rewarded Haaland and Reus with a start in the midweek defeat to Lazio, but may choose to bring 17-year-old Giovanni Reyna back into the side in place of his captain for the American's Revierderby debut after a string of excellent performances from the youngster in recent weeks.
Fahrmann is likely to be out for the visitors for sometime, meanwhile, after tearing his abductor muscle. Mark Uth and Suat Serdar will also both miss out on Saturday with muscular injuries.
Goncalo Paciencia will be pushing for a start after the forward's crucial equaliser against Union Berlin and he may replace Vedad Ibisevic, who is still without a goal since joining from Hertha Berlin in the summer.
Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Burki; Can, Hummels, Akanji; Meunier, Bellingham, Witsel, Guerreiro; Sancho, Reyna; Haaland
Schalke 04 possible starting lineup:
Ronnow; Ludewig, Sane, Nastasic, Oczipka; Bentaleb, Mascarell, Bozdogan; Skrzybski, Paciencia, Raman
We say: Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Schalke 04
We cannot see Schalke stinking the place out as badly as they did in the 4-0 defeat in May, but equally it is almost impossible to see beyond a Dortmund win.
The visitors will likely look to sit deep and frustrate their rivals, but it will surely only be a matter of time before Haaland or Sancho capitalise on the dynamic width provided by wing-backs Thomas Meunier and Raphael Guerreiro to score the crucial opening goal.
Top betting tip
Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 2.5:data
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 72.2%. A draw had a probability of 17.4% and a win for Schalke 04 had a probability of 10.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.29%) and 3-0 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.26%), while for a Schalke 04 win it was 0-1 (3.64%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
