Borussia Dortmund will be looking to move to within three points of Bundesliga leaders Bayern Munich when they welcome high-flying Freiburg to Signal Iduna Park on Friday night.
BVB are currently second in the division, six points behind Bayern on the same number of games (18), while Freiburg occupy fourth, seven points behind their opponents in this match.
Match preview
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Dortmund have not won the Bundesliga since 2012, but they are in touching distance of leaders Bayern at this stage of the season and will be looking to move to within three points of the summit on Friday night.
Bayern's surprise loss at home to Borussia Monchengladbach last time out would certainly have boosted Dortmund, who will enter this match off the back of a 3-2 success at Eintracht Frankfurt, with BVB scoring three times in the final 19 minutes to secure a huge three points.
A record of 12 wins, one draw and five defeats has seen the Black and Yellows collect 37 points, which has left them six points clear of third-placed Hoffenheim and seven clear of Freiburg in fourth, while they are also crucially eight points clear of fifth-placed Bayer Leverkusen.
Marco Rose's side face Hoffenheim and Leverkusen in their next two league games after this one and will know that they cannot afford to make too many mistakes in their pursuit of the reigning champions.
Dortmund have been excellent at home this season, winning eight of their nine league matches in front of their own supporters, but Freiburg have the second-best away record in the Bundesliga this term, collecting 15 points from nine matches, with only Bayern gathering more points on their travels.
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Freiburg have performed well above expectations in the Bundesliga this season, winning eight, drawing six and losing four of their 18 matches to pick up 30 points, which has left them fourth in the table.
Christian Streich's side finished 10th in Germany's top flight last term but are currently challenging for a top-four spot, and another strong result on Friday night would aid suggestions that they are capable of finishing in a Champions League position come the end of the season.
The visitors have only lost one of their last five Bundesliga matches, with the run including an impressive 2-1 win over Leverkusen before the winter break, but they were held to a 2-2 draw by lowly Arminia Bielefeld on their return to action on January 8.
Freiburg's home form this season has been inconsistent, with much of their success in 2021-22 built on a strong away record, and they have actually beaten Dortmund in the last two matches between the two teams, including a 2-1 success in the reverse fixture back in August.
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Team News
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Dortmund will again be without the services of Roman Burki, Manuel Akanji, Luca Unbehaun, Mateu Morey and Marcel Schmelzer for Friday's contest with Freiburg.
Dan-Axel Zagadou is expected to be available following a positive COVID-19 test, though, and the centre-back could be in line for a position in the starting XI here.
Thorgan Hazard started on the bench against Frankfurt last time out but should be back in the first XI here, while Jude Bellingham, Erling Braut Haaland and Marco Reus are all certain starters for the hosts.
As for Freiburg, Kiliann Sildillia and Mark Flekken are doubts following positive coronavirus tests, but there is a chance that Nico Schlotterbeck could be cleared to feature.
There are not expected to be many surprises in the away side's XI for this match, with head coach Streich again set to go with a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Lucas Holer at the tip of the attack.
Jeong Woo-Yeong scored his fourth Bundesliga goal of the season against Bielefeld last time out, meanwhile, and the 22-year-old should again feature in the number 10 position.
Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Kobel; Meunier, Zagadou, Hummels, Guerreiro; Bellingham, Dahoud; Brandt, Reus, Hazard; Haaland
Freiburg possible starting lineup:
Flekken; Kubler, Schlotterbeck, Lienhart, Gunter; Haberer, Hofler; Sallai, Woo-Yeong, Grifo; Holer
We say: Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Freiburg
This is a very difficult match to call, as Freiburg deserve a lot of respect for their performances and indeed results this season. Dortmund simply have to win in order to stay in touch with Bayern, though, and we are backing the home side to edge a close contest on Friday night.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 65.8%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 15.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.81%) and 1-0 (8.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.72%), while for a Freiburg win it was 1-2 (4.32%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
