Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union SG win with a probability of 48.45%. A draw had a probability of 27.09% and a win for Mechelen had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union SG win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.46%) and 1-2 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.76%) , while for a Mechelen win it was 1-0 (8.61%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood.