Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union SG win with a probability of 57.24%. A draw had a probability of 22.31% and a win for Sint-Truiden had a probability of 20.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union SG win was 2-1 with a probability of 10.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.16%) and 2-0 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.5%) , while for a Sint-Truiden win it was 0-1 (5.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood.