Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union SG win with a probability of 36.78%. A win for Sint-Truiden had a probability of 36.54% and a draw had a probability of 26.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union SG win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.21%) and 0-2 (6.13%). The likeliest Sint-Truiden win was 1-0 (9.35%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.