Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genk win with a probability of 44.5%. A win for Leuven had a probability of 29.96% and a draw had a probability of 25.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genk win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.88%) and 0-2 (6.83%). The likeliest Leuven win was 2-1 (7.42%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.62%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.