Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genk win with a probability of 40.7%. A win for Charleroi had a probability of 34.03% and a draw had a probability of 25.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genk win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.74%) and 0-2 (5.98%). The likeliest Charleroi win was 2-1 (8.05%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.