Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Torpedo-BelAZ win with a probability of 46.34%. A draw had a probability of 29.24% and a win for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk had a probability of 24.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Torpedo-BelAZ win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.76%) and 2-1 (8.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.85%) , while for a Arsenal Dzerzhinsk win it was 0-1 (9.8%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.