Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Naftan win with a probability of 38.72%. A win for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk had a probability of 35.28% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Naftan win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.95%) and 0-2 (6.62%). The likeliest Arsenal Dzerzhinsk win was 1-0 (9.84%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.