Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Neman win with a probability of 71.35%. A draw had a probability of 19.85% and a win for Naftan had a probability of 8.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Neman win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.12%) and 3-0 (10.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (8.74%) , while for a Naftan win it was 0-1 (4.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.