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AZ Alkmaar
Eredivisie | Gameweek 20
Jan 31, 2021 at 3.45pm UK
AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
Ajax

AZ
0 - 3
Ajax

FT(HT: 0-1)
Antony (14'), Klaassen (60'), Neres (90+4')

Preview: AZ Alkmaar vs. Ajax - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between AZ Alkmaar and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

AZ Alkmaar host the league leaders Ajax on Sunday in what is undoubtedly the standout fixture in round 20 of the Eredivisie.

The sides faced off 11 days ago in the last 16 of this season's KNVB-Beker, where Ajax came out on top in a 1-0 win courtesy of a Zakaria Labyad strike.


Match preview

AZ Alkmaar's Albert Guomundsson celebrates scoring their second goal with teammates in October 2020© Reuters

Following a 1-0 home defeat, AZ Alkmaar finally saw their eight-game unbeaten league run come to an end at the hands of FC Utrecht on Wednesday.

Pascal Jansen's men have failed to build upon an impressive 3-2 victory away at Feyenoord last Sunday, and are now 10 points adrift in the title race.

However, a victory this weekend would keep their hopes alive albeit faintly, while a defeat could be the final nail in their coffin.

The Cheeseheads will be hopeful of a repeat of last season's meeting at the AFAS Stadion, where they triumphed over Ajax.

AZ were behind Sunday's visitors only on goals scored before the league was abruptly ended due to coronavirus last season.

Ajax manager Erik Ten Hag pictured in December 2020© Reuters

Ajax picked up their fifth consecutive win in all competitions on Thursday by defeating 17th-placed Willem II 3-1 at home.

With the exception of a 2-2 draw against PSV Eindhoven to begin the year, Erik ten Hag's men have a perfect record since the turn of the year as they go in search of a 35th league title.

As things stand, they currently hold a four-point advantage over second-placed PSV in the Eredivisie table, and there is still work to do in ensuring that the title remains in Amsterdam this campaign.

De Godenzonen have the division's best record away from home, losing only to Groningen in all their Eredivisie games away from the Johan Cruyff ArenA this term.

AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie form: DDWWWL
AZ Alkmaar form (all competitions): DWWLWL

Ajax Eredivisie form: DDWWWW
Ajax form (all competitions): DWWWWW


Team News

Ajax players celebrate scoring against FC Midtjylland on November 25, 2020© Reuters

The departure of Klaas Jan Huntelaar to Schalke 04 is expected to translate into more opportunities in the first team for Brian Brobbey, who came off the bench to supply a goal and an assist in the win over Willem II.

Jurrien Timber and Edson Alvarez were both given a runout in midweek, but they are expected to drop back to the bench for this one.

Ron Vlaar has made a return to the bench following his recovery from a muscle injury, but AZ are not rushing him back into action just yet.

The home side will also have to make do with the absence of Dani De Wit, who remains on the sidelines with an ankle problem.

Jonas Svensson is making steady progress towards a return to action, but for now, Yukinari Sugawara will continue to fill in for him.

AZ Alkmaar possible starting lineup:
Bizot; Wijndal, Martins Indi, Hatzidiakos, Sugawara; Stengs, Koopmeiners, Midtsjo; Karlsson, Boadu, Gudmundsson

Ajax possible starting lineup:
Onana; Tagliafico, Blind, Schuurs, Mazraoui; Gravenberch, Promes, Klaassen; Tadic, Haller, Antony


SM words green background

We say: AZ Alkmaar 1-2 Ajax

Games between these two are usually tightly contested, and we expect that trend to continue in this one, but Ajax look more likely to secure the victory due to their superiority in player quality.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 57.87%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 21.8% and a draw had a probability of 20.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.51%) and 1-3 (6.94%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 (5.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.8%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: AZ vs Ajax

AZ Alkmaar
13.0%
Draw
13.0%
Ajax
73.9%
23
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rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1PSV EindhovenPSV15140156124442
2FC UtrechtUtrecht1511222920935
3Ajax15103232161633
4Feyenoord1595135161932
5FC Twente1584330201028
6AZ AlkmaarAZ1582528161226
7NAC BredaNAC Breda157171723-622
8Go Ahead Eagles156362523221
9Fortuna SittardSittard155461721-419
10Heerenveen155371628-1218
11NECNijmegen155192119216
12Willem II154471618-216
13PEC Zwolle154471524-916
14Groningen154471424-1016
15Heracles153571628-1214
16Sparta RotterdamSparta152581323-1011
17RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk1513111537-226
18Almere CityAlmere City151311734-276


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