Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Red Bull Salzburg win with a probability of 55.83%. A win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 23.11% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Red Bull Salzburg win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.54%) and 0-1 (7.26%). The likeliest Sturm Graz win was 2-1 (5.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.27%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.