Austrian Bundesliga
May 3, 2026 4.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT Red Bull Arena
  • Yorbe Vertessen 22' goal
  • Edmund Baidoo 74' yellowcard
  • Karim Konaté 80' yellowcard
  • Moussa Yeo 80' yellowcard
  • Aleksa Terzic 87' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Paul Koller 59'
  • yellowcard Luca Weinhandl 73'
  • yellowcard Otar Kiteishvili 73'
  • yellowcard Niklas Geyrhofer 73'
  • yellowcard Axel Kayombo 88'
  • goal Axel Kayombo 90'+3'

Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Red Bull Salzburg

All competitions
Austrian Bundesliga
Last game
Apr 26, 2026 1.30pm
Rapid Vienna 1 - 0 Salzburg
Goals scored
54
Top scorer
Karim Konaté

Sturm Graz

All competitions
Austrian Bundesliga
Last game
Apr 26, 2026 4.00pm
Sturm Graz 1 - 1 Austria Vienna
Goals scored
45
Top scorer
Otar Kiteishvili

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Red Bull Salzburg win with a probability of 48.63%. A win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 28.53% and a draw had a probability of 22.81%.

The most likely scoreline for a Red Bull Salzburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.71%) and 2-0 (6.85%). The likeliest Sturm Graz win was 1-2 (7.1%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood.

Result

Red Bull Salzburg 48.63% (-0.06)
Draw 22.81% (-0.04)
Sturm Graz 28.53% (+0.08)

Both Teams to Score: 

63.56% (+0.11)

Goals

Over 1.5 82.98% (+0.08)
Under 1.5 17.02% (-0.08)
Over 2.5 62.43% (+0.15)
Under 2.5 37.57% (-0.15)
Over 3.5 40.04% (+0.16)
Under 3.5 59.96% (-0.14)
Over 4.5 24.7% (+0.10)
Under 4.5 75.3% (-0.11)

First Half Winner

Red Bull Salzburg 39.34%
Draw 36.57%
Sturm Graz 24.09%

Team To Score First

Red Bull Salzburg 59.33% (+0.04)
No Goal 4.06% (-0.06)
Sturm Graz 36.61% (+0.02)

Corners

Over 8 61.37%
Equal 8 11.84%
Under 8 26.79%
Over 9 48.88%
Equal 9 12.48%
Under 9 38.63%
Over 10.5 36.95%
Under 10.5 63.05%

Red Bull Salzburg Goals

Over 1.5 52.51% (+0.02)
Under 1.5 47.49% (-0.02)
Over 2.5 26.6% (+0.03)
Under 2.5 73.4% (-0.02)
Over 3.5 10.88% (+0.04)
Under 3.5 89.12% (-0.04)

Sturm Graz Goals

Over 0.5 66.65% (+0.11)
Under 0.5 33.35% (-0.11)
Over 1.5 36.09% (+0.13)
Under 1.5 63.91% (-0.13)
Over 2.5 14.71% (+0.09)
Under 2.5 85.29% (-0.08)
Over 3.5 5.26% (+0.03)
Under 3.5 94.74% (-0.04)

Score analysis

Red Bull Salzburg 48.62%
Draw 22.81%
Sturm Graz 28.53%
Red Bull Salzburg
2-1 @ 9.59% (-0.01)
1-0 @ 7.71% (-0.05)
2-0 @ 6.85% (-0.05)
3-1 @ 5.69% (+0.02)
3-0 @ 4.1% (-0.04)
3-2 @ 4.09% (+0.01)
Other @ 10.59% (+0.03)
Total : 48.62%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.07% (-0.01)
2-2 @ 6.55% (+0.02)
0-0 @ 4.06% (-0.06)
3-3 @ 1.84%
Other @ 0.29%
Total : 22.81%
Sturm Graz
1-2 @ 7.1% (+0.01)
0-1 @ 5.21% (-0.01)
0-2 @ 3.64%
1-3 @ 3.1% (+0.03)
2-3 @ 2.92% (+0.03)
0-3 @ 1.59%
Other @ 4.97% (+0.03)
Total : 28.53%

Head to Head

Austrian Bundesliga Gameweek 2
Mar 20, 2026 6.30pm
1
1
HT : 1 1
FT Merkur Arena
  • Emanuel Aiwu 39' yellowcard
  • Jon Gorenc Stankovic 45'+5' goal
  • Maurice Malone 70' yellowcard
  • Filip Rózga 70' yellowcard
  • Axel Kayombo 87' yellowcard
  • Luca Weinhandl 87' yellowcard
  • goal Yorbe Vertessen 32'
  • yellowcard Sota Kitano 75'
  • yellowcard Damir Redzic 75'
  • yellowcard Moussa Yeo 83'
  • yellowcard Karim Onisiwo 85'
Austrian Bundesliga
Nov 9, 2025 4.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Austrian Bundesliga
Sep 20, 2025 4.00pm
0
2
HT : 0 0
FT
Austrian Bundesliga Gameweek 8
May 9, 2025 6.30pm
4
2
HT : 2 1
FT Merkur Arena
  • Aleksa Terzic 18' goal
  • William Boving 20' goal
  • Gregory Wuthrich 48' goal
  • Tochi Chukwuani 72' goal
  • goal Nene Dorgeles 45'
  • goal Emanuel Aiwu 59' (OG)
  • yellowcard Kouakou Joane Gadou 68'
Austrian Bundesliga Gameweek 3
Apr 13, 2025 1.30pm
1
2
HT : 1 0
FT Red Bull Arena
  • Moussa Kounfolo Yeo 6' yellowcard
  • Adam Daghim 32' goal
  • goal Otar Kiteishvili 48'
  • yellowcard Emanuel Aiwu 54'
  • redcard Gregory Wuthrich 63'
  • goal Otar Kiteishvili 70'
  • yellowcard Malick Junior Yalcouye 71'
Austrian Bundesliga Gameweek 20
Mar 2, 2025 4.00pm
3
1
HT : 0 1
FT Red Bull Arena
  • Yorbe Vertessen 72' goal
  • Nene Dorgeles 84' goal
  • Karim Onisiwo 87' goal
  • goal Jon Gorenc Stankovic 10'
  • yellowcard Dimitri Lavalee 39'
  • yellowcard Emanuel Aiwu 45'
  • yellowcard Otar Kiteishvili 53'