Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Red Bull Salzburg win with a probability of 39.12%. A win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 35.87% and a draw had a probability of 24.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Red Bull Salzburg win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.5%) and 0-2 (5.98%). The likeliest Sturm Graz win was 2-1 (8.09%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood.