Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Turkey win with a probability of 55.2%. A win for Australia had a probability of 23% and a draw had a probability of 21.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Turkey win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.68%) and 0-2 (8.4%). The likeliest Australia win was 2-1 (5.78%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.