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Atletico Mineiro
Brasileiro | Gameweek 14
Aug 1, 2021 at 8pm UK
Mineirão
Athletico Paranaense

Atletico Mineiro
2 - 0
Athletico PR

Vargas (60' pen.), Fialho de Carvalho Neto (69')
Mariano (45'), Fialho de Carvalho Neto (67'), Vargas (86')
Vargas (89')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Heleno (59'), Christian (80'), Erick (90+1')

Preview: Atletico Mineiro vs. Athletico Paranaense - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Brasileiro clash between Atletico Mineiro and Athletico Paranaense, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Atletico Mineiro will look to stretch their winning run to seven league games on Sunday, when they host Athletico Paranaense.

A rapid upturn in form has seen Cuca's side rise to second spot in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A table, while their visitors sit in fifth place after a recent dip.


Match preview

Atletico Mineiro coach Cuca during the match on May 19, 2021© Reuters

Atletico Mineiro had a fairly slow start to the domestic campaign by their own standards, winning just three of their first seven games while collecting ten points.

Cuca's men dropped as low as ninth spot in the Brazilian top flight after seven league games, following back-to-back defeats, firstly losing 2-1 to Ceara before they were comfortably defeated 2-0 by Santos.

However, those losses triggered a turnaround for the Alvinegro, as they made a return to winning ways with a 4-1 thrashing of Atletico Goianiense thanks to braces from Matias Zaracho and Ignacio Fernandez.

Narrow victories against Cuiaba, Flamengo, Corinthians and America Mineiro then followed, seeing Cuca's side rise up the table, while also defeating Boca Juniors on a penalty shootout to advance to the Copa Libertadores quarter-finals after a goalless two-legged affair.

Most recently, Atletico Mineiro have recorded back-to-back wins over Bahia, firstly picking up a 3-0 victory to stretch their winning run to six league games, before Matias Zaracho and Hulk fired them to a 2-0 victory in the first leg of their Copa do Brasil round-of-16 tie.

The upturn in form has seen the Alvinegro rise to second spot in the Brazilian top flight, now sitting just three points behind league leaders Palmeiras, and they will be desperate to further stretch their impressive run in order to continue the pressure on the side at the summit of the division.

They face one of their toughest tests of the campaign so far, though, hosting fifth-placed Athletico Paranaense.

Athletico Paranaense's Richard celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on June 30, 2021© Reuters

Sunday's visitors have had the opposite season to their opponents so far, having had a particularly strong start to the league campaign.

Antonio Oliveira's men won their first four games of the season to briefly move to the summit of the division, although an inconsistent patch quickly followed.

Since that run, El Paranaense have won just three of their last eight league matches, while also losing three and drawing the other two.

That run has seen them drop to fifth spot after a recent 1-0 defeat at the hands of Ceara.

However, Oliveira's side did bounce back last time out, recording their seventh league win of the season as goals from David Terans and Vitinho fired them to a 2-1 home victory over Internacional.

A recent 6-2 aggregate win over Atletico Goianiense in the Copa do Brasil round of 16 also means that they come into Sunday's game in a run of three straight victories, suggesting that they may be reversing their fortunes and can build with another positive result in league action, as they aim to climb back towards the top of the table.

Atletico Mineiro Brasileiro form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W

Atletico Mineiro form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W

Athletico Paranaense Brasileiro form:
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • W

Athletico Paranaense form (all competitions):
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W



Team News

Atletico Mineiro's Hulk celebrates scoring their third goal on May 26, 2021© Reuters

Atletico Mineiro remain without several important players through injury, with Rafael, Marrony, Keno and Jair all expected to continue spells on the sidelines.

Guilherme Arana is also out of contention, as he is in Tokyo with the Brazilian Olympic Football squad.

Experienced forward Hulk will continue to lead the line, having already registered six goals and five assists in 13 league appearances this season, including a brace in their recent 3-0 win over Bahia.

Athletico Paranaense also have several selection concerns to deal with, as Lucas Halter and Matheus Babi should remain out of action through injury.

They are not the only absentees for Oliveira to manage, as Vitinho is suspended and Abner and Santos are also in Brazil's Olympic squad.

Nikao, David Terans and Carlos Eduardo should form a dangerous trio behind a lone striker, with Renato Kayzer expected to lead the line in the absence of Babi.

Atletico Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Everson; Tripodi, Nathan, Alonso, Dodo; Allan, Fernandez, Tche; Savarino, Hulk, Zaracho

Athletico Paranaense possible starting lineup:
Krepski; Marcinho, Henrique, Heleno, Nicolas; Christian, Richard; Nikao, Terans, Eduardo; Kayzer


SM words green background

We say: Atletico Mineiro 2-1 Athletico Paranaense

Athletico Paranaense will certainly provide a stern test for Cuca's side, but given their eye-catching run of form, we see Atletico Mineiro coming away from Sunday's game with all three points.

Both sides are without several key players, but the Alvinegro's confidence should see them over the line in what we expect to be a close game.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



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Written by
Sam Varley

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 57.35%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 18.26%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.63%) and 2-1 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.41%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (6.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Atletico Mineiro vs Athletico PR

Atletico Mineiro
68.0%
Draw
16.0%
Athletico Paranaense
16.0%
25
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Botafogo382310559293079
2PalmeirasPalmeiras38227960332773
3FlamengoFlamengo382010861421970
4FortalezaFortaleza381911853391468
5InternacionalInternacional381811953361765
6Sao Paulo381781353431059
7Corinthians381511125445956
8Bahia38158154949053
9Cruzeiro381410144341252
10Vasco da GamaVasco38148164356-1350
11Vitoria38138174552-747
12Atletico Mineiro381114134754-747
13Fluminense381210163339-646
14Gremio38129174450-645
15JuventudeJuventude381112154859-1145
16BragantinoBragantino381014144448-444
17Athletico ParanaenseAthletico PR38119184046-642
18CriciumaCriciuma38911184261-1938
19Atletico GoianienseAtletico GO3879222958-2930
20Cuiaba38612202949-2030


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