Aston Villa news: Six stats prove Nicolas Jackson is out of Ollie Watkins shadow, over Enzo Maresca snub

Saturday afternoon must have felt particularly sweet to Nicolas Jackson. Not only did he help Aston Villa supporters move on from Ollie Watkins, he served a reminder to Enzo Maresca that he was wrong to end his career at Chelsea.

His second goal in front of a dishevelled and deserted North Stand made the difference at Villa Park as Unai Emery's side inflicted Manchester City's first Premier League defeat of the season.

Yet, it was the manner in which he calmly stepped inside Elliot Anderson and rifled the ball into the roof of Gianluigi Donnarumma's net for his first that really cemented his status among a fanbase who, justifiably, felt that they had overspent on a player who they deemed not to be in the class of their departing legendary striker Watkins.

Reuniting with Emery - his boss at Villarreal - has created a zen-like persona in Jackson, even though there is still a feeling that he plays on the edge. His opening 45 minutes against Nottingham Forest earlier in the season proved that.

© Imago / APL

Such was Jackson's character at Chelsea it was not beyond the realms of possibility that he could have produced an Emmanuel Adebayor knee-slide in front of his former head coach. Instead, the quickly-maturing 25-year-old offered his riposte to the biggest snub of his career through a man-of-the-match performance.

Jackson now has seven goals from 11 Villa appearances. He is exceeding expectations with his return in front of goal, yet there are many underlying statistics which emphasise why Watkins should not necessarily be missed at Villa and how Maresca was not the right manager for Jackson.

How is Jackson out-performing Watkins at Aston Villa?

To those relying on highlights packages to watch Villa games, all they will see is Jackson's contributions in the final third, but it is perhaps his work away from goal that is the most valuable asset to Emery.

As per Fotmob, Jackson is producing 19.6 sprints per 90 minutes for Villa in the Premier League. That could increase or decrease over time, but by comparison, Watkins was down at 13.8 sprints per 90 minutes in 2025-26.

Meanwhile, Jackson is averaging 2.5 successful dribbles per 90 minutes in the 2026-27 Premier League. It is the highest for a striker in the division. Watkins ended 2025-26 with an average of 0.8 per 90 minutes and sitting 15th in the list of strikers.

The xA (expected assists) will increase over the course of a season, but Jackson is currently on 0.9 and fourth in the list of strikers for that category. Watkins concluded last season down in 17th position.

In terms of distance covered per 90 minutes, Jackson and Watkins are extremely similar (10.4km to 10.3km). That would suggest that Jackson has quickly appreciated - helped by their Villarreal days - what Emery demands of his number nine.

As well as Jackson's running statistics, there are numbers which indicate that Emery is far more appreciative of how his £65m signing is most likely to contribute to goals than his previous managers.

Jackson or Maresca to blame for Chelsea issues?

There are reasons why Maresca will never regret dumping Jackson from his Chelsea squad. His red card against Flamengo at the Club World Cup - not long after one at Newcastle United in the Premier League - felt like the final straw.

Jackson had also failed to shake a reputation of frequently squandering chances inside the penalty area. Across his first two seasons at Chelsea under Mauricio Pochettino and Maresca, he underperformed from an xG perspective by 6.9 goals.

In the short space of time that he has worked with Emery at Villa, he is overperforming by two goals. Again, such statistics can fluctuate over the course of a season, but it opens up the debate of whether Jackson was getting into the right spaces under former bosses.

Maturity and having a season at Bayern Munich to hone his craft alongside Harry Kane should also be considered, yet it is Emery, or his playing style, who is helping generate the most encouraging numbers.

When you look at the amount of assists in Jackson's career, he has 22 across 174 matches for Villarreal, Chelsea, Bayern and Villa. Essentially one assist every eight appearances.

© Imago / News Images

He ranked eighth and 10th respectively for expected assists for strikers in his two seasons at Chelsea, but he sits in fourth in seven Premier League games for Villa.

Furthermore, his successful dribbles per 90 minutes under Emery is 3.5 times higher (2.5 to 0.7) than it was under Maresca at Chelsea. If there is a statistic which highlights how Maresca's style of play did not fit with Jackson's strengths, this is it.

Villa fans should not get too carried away with Jackson's start. This remains a player who has only ever scored in three successive Premier League matches on one occasion across 72 appearances in the division.

At the same time, if Jackson can record 15 goals/assists in 30 Premier League games under someone in Maresca who ultimately did not sufficiently believe in him, what could he achieve under someone who does?