Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iraq win with a probability of 60.32%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Vietnam had a probability of 19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Iraq win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.16%) and 1-0 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.53%), while for a Vietnam win it was 1-2 (5.15%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Iraq would win this match.