Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 50.28%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Instituto had a probability of 22.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.65%) and 2-1 (8.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.51%), while for a Instituto win it was 0-1 (9.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Velez Sarsfield in this match.