Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 45.43%. A draw had a probability of 31.1% and a win for Instituto had a probability of 23.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 0-1 with a probability of 17.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.01%) and 1-2 (7.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.24%), while for a Instituto win it was 1-0 (11.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.