Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newell's Old Boys win with a probability of 36.09%. A win for Boca Juniors had a probability of 33.46% and a draw had a probability of 30.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newell's Old Boys win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.1%) and 2-1 (7.07%). The likeliest Boca Juniors win was 0-1 (12.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newell's Old Boys would win this match.