Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estudiantes win with a probability of 48.97%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Independiente had a probability of 23.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estudiantes win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.01%) and 2-1 (8.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.61%), while for a Independiente win it was 0-1 (9.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.