America Mineiro could be eliminated from the Copa Sudamericana if they do not overturn a first-leg defeat against Colo-Colo at Independencia on Tuesday.
The Brazilian side were beaten 2-1 in Macul last Tuesday, but the deficit is not insurmountable for Coelho, seeking a place in the round of 16.
Match preview
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If America overturn their round of 32 first-leg loss to Colo-Colo, they will have Alexandre Egea's last-gasp consolation from the encounter to thank.
The Brazilian outfit had conceded two second-half goals to Leonardo Gil before the midfielder halved the deficit with a strike that adds a layer of intrigue to Tuesday's meeting.
Vagner Mancini's team reserved their better group stage performances for their ground, where they netted eight times in three games, winning twice.
Coelho's proclivity to find the back of the net gives the home side hope of turning the tie around, even if that optimism diminishes due to their inability to keep clean sheets.
With one shutout in their last nine games in all competitions, America's prospects of progressing hang by a thread.
As for Colo-Colo, they could rue that 93rd-minute concession to their Brazilian opponents if the tie goes against them.
A two-goal advantage for the Chilean side would have put them in a better situation heading into this week's reverse fixture, but they had to make do with a 2-1 advantage.
Gustavo Quinteros's team were eliminated from the Copa Libertadores, having ended third in their group, suggesting they should be superior to their opponents, even if that is seldom the case.
Los Albos failed to win any away game in the Libertadores group phase, perhaps explaining why they exited that competition early and cannot afford to continue that winless road run on the continent.
Unlike America, who have one win in five in all competitions, Colo-Colo have claimed three consecutive victories (including this tie's reverse game) and are undefeated in four, giving the Chilean club some positivity before Tuesday.
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Team News
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Dada Belmonte has not played since early April, and the wide attacker is not expected back for Tuesday's game.
Adyson is still sidelined with the knee trouble that has kept him out since late April.
Danilo Avelar and Everaldo are doubtful after going off injured against Corinthians on Saturday.
Emiliano Amor has not played all season due to a ruptured ankle ligament, and the centre-back is still absent.
Brayan Cortes thrived on his return between the sticks for Colo-Colo against O'Higgins, giving Quinteros a decision to be made, with Fernando de Paul utilised in the reverse victory over America.
Maximiliano Falcon should return to the heart of the Chilean side's defence, having served the second game of a suspension in the league at the weekend.
America Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Pasinato; Lopes, Ferreira, Maidana, Nicolas; Martinez, Ale, Benitez; Matheusinho, Mastriani, Varanda
Colo-Colo possible starting lineup:
De Paul; Rojas, Saldiva, Falcon, Bouzat; Fuentes, Gil, Pavez; Thompson, Pizarro, Palacios
We say: America Mineiro 1-1 Colo-Colo (Colo-Colo win 3-2 on aggregate)
Colo-Colo come into this clash with momentum, and that should be enough to secure a draw against America in Brazil, assuring the Chilean side of passage into the round of 16.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 51.72%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Colo-Colo had a probability of 23.36%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.59%) and 2-1 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.84%), while for a Colo-Colo win it was 0-1 (7.36%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that America Mineiro would win this match.
