Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 37.63%. A win for America Mineiro had a probability of 35.6% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.21%) and 2-0 (6.58%). The likeliest America Mineiro win was 0-1 (9.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensa y Justicia would win this match.