Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 45.97%. A win for Instituto had a probability of 27.98% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.11%) and 2-0 (8.37%). The likeliest Instituto win was 0-1 (8.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Defensa y Justicia in this match.