Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 54.71%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Instituto had a probability of 19.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.23%) and 2-1 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.85%), while for a Instituto win it was 0-1 (7.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1% likelihood.