Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Instituto win with a probability of 45.94%. A draw had a probability of 29.4% and a win for Atletico Tucuman had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Instituto win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.74%) and 2-1 (8.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.97%), while for an Atletico Tucuman win it was 0-1 (10.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.