Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Tucuman win with a probability of 38.25%. A win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 30.91% and a draw had a probability of 30.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Tucuman win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.75%) and 2-1 (7.17%). The likeliest Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 (12.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (13.67%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood.