Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 49.43%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Gimnasia had a probability of 22.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.33%) and 2-1 (8.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.6%), while for a Gimnasia win it was 0-1 (9.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Velez Sarsfield would win this match.