Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newell's Old Boys win with a probability of 34.94%. A win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 33.79% and a draw had a probability of 31.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newell's Old Boys win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.92%) and 2-1 (6.69%). The likeliest Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 (13.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (14.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Newell's Old Boys in this match.