Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gimnasia win with a probability of 42.16%. A draw had a probability of 29.4% and a win for Instituto had a probability of 28.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gimnasia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.56%) and 2-1 (7.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.26%), while for a Instituto win it was 0-1 (11.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gimnasia would win this match.