Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Platense win with a probability of 42.38%. A win for Instituto had a probability of 29.49% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Platense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.36%) and 2-0 (8.24%). The likeliest Instituto win was 0-1 (10.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Platense in this match.