/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F10%2Fajalog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F06%2Fatllog_1.png)
-
Sofyan Amrabat
45'
-
Tolu Arokodare
87'
-
Marc ter Stegen
90'+2'
-
Abdellah Ouazane
90'+3'
-
Lazar Samardžić
68'
-
Nicola Zalewski
86'
Ajax vs Atalanta BC - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F08%2Fjulian-brandt-celebrates-with-ajax-teammate-jorthy-mokio-on-august-20-2026-pro-shots-6a8e342cb52d2309546685.jpg)
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 57.62%. A win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 22.86% and a draw had a probability of 19.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.45%) and 2-0 (7.81%). The likeliest Atalanta BC win was 1-2 (6.03%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.
Result
Ajax
57.62%
▲
(+0.03)
Draw
19.52%
Atalanta BC
22.86%
▼
(-0.04)
Both Teams to Score:
58.26%
Goals
Over 1.5
82.73%
▲
(+0.03)
Under 1.5
17.27%
▼
(-0.02)
Over 2.5
62.86%
Under 2.5
37.14%
Over 3.5
39.7%
Under 3.5
60.3%
Over 4.5
25.96%
Under 4.5
74.04%
First Half Winner
Ajax
48.63%
Draw
34.66%
Atalanta BC
16.71%
Team To Score First
Ajax
68.58%
No Goal
3.93%
Atalanta BC
27.49%
Corners
Over 8
58.5%
Equal 8
10.2%
Under 8
31.3%
Over 9
48.02%
Equal 9
10.49%
Under 9
41.5%
Over 10.5
38.03%
Under 10.5
61.97%
Ajax Goals
Over 1.5
57.75%
▲
(+0.04)
Under 1.5
42.25%
▼
(-0.04)
Over 2.5
32.92%
▲
(+0.04)
Under 2.5
67.08%
▼
(-0.04)
Over 3.5
15.5%
▲
(+0.01)
Under 3.5
84.5%
▼
(-0.02)
Atalanta BC Goals
Over 0.5
58.74%
▼
(-0.02)
Under 0.5
41.26%
▲
(+0.02)
Over 1.5
28.62%
▼
(-0.02)
Under 1.5
71.38%
▲
(+0.02)
Over 2.5
10.26%
▼
(-0.02)
Under 2.5
89.74%
▲
(+0.02)
Over 3.5
3.36%
▼
(-0.02)
Under 3.5
96.64%
▲
(+0.02)
Score analysis
Ajax
57.63%
Draw
19.52%
Atalanta BC
22.86%
Ajax
2-1
@
9.82%
1-0 @ 8.45%
2-0 @ 7.81% ▲ (+0.01)
3-1 @ 6.39% ▲ (+0.01)
3-0 @ 5.75% ▲ (+0.01)
3-2 @ 4.08%
Other @ 15.33% ▲ (+0.01)
Total : 57.63%
1-0 @ 8.45%
2-0 @ 7.81% ▲ (+0.01)
3-1 @ 6.39% ▲ (+0.01)
3-0 @ 5.75% ▲ (+0.01)
3-2 @ 4.08%
Other @ 15.33% ▲ (+0.01)
Total : 57.63%
Draw
1-1
@
9.01%
2-2 @ 5.21%
0-0 @ 3.93%
3-3 @ 1.2%
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 19.52%
2-2 @ 5.21%
0-0 @ 3.93%
3-3 @ 1.2%
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 19.52%
Atalanta BC
1-2
@
6.03%
0-1 @ 4.9% ▼ (-0.01)
0-2 @ 3.04%
1-3 @ 2.14%
2-3 @ 1.99%
0-3 @ 1.57% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 3.19% ▼ (-0.02)
Total : 22.86%
0-1 @ 4.9% ▼ (-0.01)
0-2 @ 3.04%
1-3 @ 2.14%
2-3 @ 1.99%
0-3 @ 1.57% ▼ (-0.02)
Other @ 3.19% ▼ (-0.02)
Total : 22.86%
