Eredivisie Gameweek 8
Oct 10, 2026 8.00pm
Johan Cruijff Arena

Ajax vs NEC - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Ajax

All competitions
Last game
Sep 19, 2026 7.00pm
Ajax 2 - 2 Excelsior
Goals scored
21
Top scorer
Julian Brandt

NEC

All competitions
Last game
Sep 20, 2026 3.45pm
Nijmegen 1 - 1 Go Ahead Eagles
Goals scored
12
Top scorer
Adam Tahaui

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Ajax win with a probability of 66.74%. A draw has a probability of 17.17% and a win for NEC has a probability of 16.12%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ajax win is 2-1 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (8.45%) and 1-0 (8.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (7.91%) , while for a NEC win it is 1-2 (4.58%).

Result

Ajax 66.74% ▲ (+0.41)
Draw 17.17% ▼ (-0.58)
NEC 16.12% ▲ (+0.21)

Both Teams to Score: 

59.65% ▲ (+0.44)

Goals

Over 1.5 84.84% ▼ (-0.27)
Under 1.5 15.16% ▲ (+0.27)
Over 2.5 66.4% ▼ (-0.65)
Under 2.5 33.6% ▲ (+0.65)
Over 3.5 44.76% ▲ (+1.44)
Under 3.5 55.24% ▼ (-1.44)
Over 4.5 30.55% ▲ (+1.56)
Under 4.5 69.45% ▼ (-1.55)

First Half Winner

Ajax 55.69% ▼ (-1.13)
Draw 29.47% ▲ (+1.24)
NEC 14.84% ▼ (-0.13)

Team To Score First

Ajax 72.5% ▼ (-0.91)
No Goal 3.35% ▼ (-0.13)
NEC 24.15% ▲ (+1.04)

Corners

Over 8 67.62% ▲ (+7.98)
Equal 8 10.27% ▼ (-0.54)
Under 8 22.12% ▼ (-7.43)
Over 9 56.3% ▲ (+7.81)
Equal 9 11.32% ▲ (+0.17)
Under 9 32.38% ▼ (-7.97)
Over 10.5 44.88% ▲ (+7.03)
Under 10.5 55.12% ▼ (-7.03)

Ajax Goals

Over 1.5 66.26% ▲ (+0.10)
Under 1.5 33.74% ▼ (-0.09)
Over 2.5 41.8% ▲ (+0.80)
Under 2.5 58.2% ▼ (-0.80)
Over 3.5 21.19% ▲ (+0.81)
Under 3.5 78.81% ▼ (-0.80)

NEC Goals

Over 0.5 52.13% ▼ (-0.94)
Under 0.5 47.87% ▲ (+0.94)
Over 1.5 22.97% ▲ (+0.13)
Under 1.5 77.03% ▼ (-0.13)
Over 2.5 6.81% ▼ (-0.18)
Under 2.5 93.19% ▲ (+0.18)
Over 3.5 1.85% ▲ (+0.13)
Under 3.5 98.15% ▼ (-0.12)

Score analysis

Ajax 66.74%
Draw 17.19%
NEC 16.13%
Ajax
2-1 @ 9.62% ▼ (-1.03)
2-0 @ 8.45% ▲ (+0.25)
1-0 @ 8.03% ▲ (+0.16)
3-1 @ 7.79% ▼ (-0.21)
3-0 @ 6.92% ▼ (-0.18)
3-2 @ 4.75% ▲ (+0.52)
Other @ 21.18% ▲ (+0.88)
Total : 66.74%
Draw
1-1 @ 7.91% ▼ (-0.12)
2-2 @ 4.77% ▼ (-0.11)
0-0 @ 3.35% ▼ (-0.13)
3-3 @ 1.15% ▼ (-0.14)
Other @ 0.01% ▼ (-0.08)
Total : 17.19%
NEC
1-2 @ 4.58% ▼ (-0.38)
0-1 @ 3.84% ▲ (+0.28)
0-2 @ 2.06% ▲ (+0.25)
1-3 @ 1.67% ▲ (+0.20)
2-3 @ 1.62% ▲ (+0.17)
Other @ 1.84% ▲ (+0.21)
Total : 16.13%

Head to Head

Eredivisie Gameweek 24
Feb 21, 2026 8.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT Johan Cruijff Arena
  • Mika Godts 39' goal
  • Wout Weghorst 64' yellowcard
  • Jorthy Mokio 64' yellowcard
  • Takehiro Tomiyasu 64' yellowcard
  • Takehiro Tomiyasu 65' yellowcard
  • Jorthy Mokio 65' yellowcard
  • Wout Weghorst 65' yellowcard
  • Jorthy Mokio 66' yellowcard
  • Oscar Gloukh 77' yellowcard
  • Steven Berghuis 84' yellowcard
  • goal Darko Nejasmic 57'
  • yellowcard Youssef El Kachati 64'
  • yellowcard Başar Önal 64'
  • yellowcard Danilo 64'
  • yellowcard Danilo 66'
  • yellowcard Deveron Fonville 69'
Eredivisie
Dec 20, 2025 7.00pm
2
2
HT : 1 2
FT
  • Bryan Linssen 3' goal
  • Bryan Linssen 11' yellowcard
  • Sami Ouaissa 46' goal
  • Sami Ouaissa 59' redcard
  • Sami Ouaissa 60' redcard
  • Gonzalo Alejandro Crettaz 90'+4' yellowcard
  • Gonzalo Alejandro Crettaz 90'+5' yellowcard
  • Ahmetcan Kaplan 90'+5' yellowcard
  • goal Kasper Dolberg 38'
  • goal Mika Godts 44'
  • yellowcard Rayane Bounida 77'
  • yellowcard Mika Godts 88'
  • yellowcard Youri Regeer 90'+3'
Eredivisie Gameweek 32
May 11, 2025 3.45pm
0
3
HT : 0 0
FT Amsterdam ArenA
  • Anton Gaaei 30' yellowcard
  • Kian Fitz-Jim 64' yellowcard
  • Steven Berghuis 90'+3' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Ivan Marquez 27'
  • yellowcard Vito van Crooij 37'
  • yellowcard Brayann Pereira 38'
  • goal Sontje Hansen 59'
  • goal Brayann Pereira 67'
  • yellowcard Calvin Verdonk 69'
  • goal Sami Ouaissa 82'
Eredivisie Gameweek 14
Dec 1, 2024 3.45pm
1
2
HT : 1 1
FT Sportpark De Weeren
  • Sontje Hansen 13' goal
  • Kodai Sano 90'+3' yellowcard
  • goal Wout Weghorst 15'
  • yellowcard Devyne Rensch 31'
  • goal Wout Weghorst 48'
  • yellowcard Wout Weghorst 51'
  • yellowcard Anton Gaaei 69'
  • yellowcard Jorrel Hato 74'
  • yellowcard Ahmetcan Kaplan 90'
Eredivisie Gameweek 22
Feb 18, 2024 1.30pm
2
2
HT : 1 0
FT Johan Cruijff Arena
  • Brian Brobbey 7' goal
  • Brian Brobbey 67' yellowcard
  • Carlos Borges 79' goal
  • Kristian Hlynsson 87' yellowcard
  • goal Jorrel Hato 61' (OG)
  • goal Rober 90'+5'
Eredivisie Gameweek 14
Dec 3, 2023 1.30pm
1
2
HT : 0 0
FT Sportpark De Weeren
  • Elayis Tavsan 90' goal
  • goal Kristian Hlynsson 57'
  • goal Carlos Borges 88'