Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Sep 6, 2024 at 8pm UK

Stade d'Agadir

Morocco
4 - 1
Gabon

Ziyech (10' pen., 26' pen.), Diaz (59'), El Kaabi (82')
Abqar (15')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Aubameyang (40' pen.)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Morocco and Gabon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Morocco

All competitions

Last Game: Congo 0-6 Morocco
Tuesday, June 11 at 8pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Current Group F Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Morocco	3	4	7
2	Congo DR	3	0	3
3	Zambia	3	-1	2
4	Tanzania	3	-3	2

Gabon

All competitions

Last Game: Ivory Coast 1-0 Gabon
Friday, June 7 at 8pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Current Group C Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Morocco	3	3	7
2	Gabon	3	1	5
3	Comoros	3	-2	3
4	Ghana	3	-2	1

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Morocco win with a probability of 66.57%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Gabon had a probability of 11.57%.

The most likely scoreline for a Morocco win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.84%) and 3-0 (8.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.75%), while for a Gabon win it was 0-1 (5.43%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Morocco would win this match.

Result
Morocco	Draw	Gabon
66.57% ( -0.88)	21.86% ( 0.47)	11.57% ( 0.41)

Both teams to score 37.16% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.65% (

-0.77)

57.35% (

0.77)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.83% (

-0.61)

78.17% (

0.61)

Morocco Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.4% (

-0.56)

16.6% (

0.56)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.59% (

-1.02)

46.41% (

1.02)

Gabon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

44.55% (

0.28)

55.45% (

-0.28)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

11.85% (

0.17)

88.15% (

-0.16)

Score Analysis

Morocco 66.56%

Gabon 11.57%

Draw 21.86%

Morocco	Draw	Gabon
1-0 @ 16.52% ( 0.17) 2-0 @ 14.84% ( -0.12) 3-0 @ 8.88% ( -0.25) 2-1 @ 8.75% 3-1 @ 5.24% ( -0.1) 4-0 @ 3.99% ( -0.19) 4-1 @ 2.35% ( -0.09) 3-2 @ 1.55% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 1.43% ( -0.1) Other @ 3.01% Total : 66.56%	1-1 @ 9.75% ( 0.18) 0-0 @ 9.2% ( 0.27) 2-2 @ 2.58% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.33% Total : 21.86%	0-1 @ 5.43% ( 0.2) 1-2 @ 2.87% ( 0.08) 0-2 @ 1.6% ( 0.07) Other @ 1.67% Total : 11.57%