Al-Nassr
AFC Champions League | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg
Mar 10, 2025 at 6pm UK
King Saud University Stadium

Al-Nassr
3 - 0
Esteghlal

Duran (9', 84'), Ronaldo (27' pen.)
Al-Najdi (68')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Ahmadi (17'), Kojo (62')
Ahmadi (45+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's AFC Champions League clash between Al-Nassr and Esteghlal, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Al-Nassr

All competitions
AFC Champions League
Last Game: Al-Nassr 2-2 Al Shabab
Friday, March 7 at 7pm in Saudi Pro League

Esteghlal

All competitions
Last Game: Esteghlal 0-0 Al-Nassr
Monday, March 3 at 4pm in AFC Champions League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Nassr win with a probability of 75.78%. A draw had a probability of 15.9% and a win for Esteghlal had a probability of 8.36%.

The most likely scoreline for an Al-Nassr win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.64%) and 3-0 (10.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.53%), while for a Esteghlal win it was 0-1 (3.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Al-Nassr would win this match.

Result
Al-NassrDrawEsteghlal
75.78% (-2.751 -2.75)15.86% (1.356 1.36)8.36% (1.393 1.39)
Both teams to score 43.13% (2.134 2.13)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.93% (-1.121 -1.12)42.07% (1.118 1.12)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.52% (-1.135 -1.14)64.48% (1.132 1.13)
Al-Nassr Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.6% (-0.92 -0.92)9.4% (0.918 0.92)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
68.38% (-2.221 -2.22)31.62% (2.217 2.22)
Esteghlal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
47.6% (2.808 2.81)52.4% (-2.811 -2.81)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
13.74% (1.74 1.74)86.26% (-1.743 -1.74)
Score Analysis
    Al-Nassr 75.77%
    Esteghlal 8.36%
    Draw 15.86%
Al-NassrDrawEsteghlal
2-0 @ 13.76% (-0.49 -0.49)
1-0 @ 11.64% (0.09 0.09)
3-0 @ 10.85% (-0.87 -0.87)
2-1 @ 8.9% (0.432 0.43)
3-1 @ 7.01% (0.05 0.05)
4-0 @ 6.42% (-0.816 -0.82)
4-1 @ 4.15% (-0.149 -0.15)
5-0 @ 3.04% (-0.534 -0.53)
3-2 @ 2.27% (0.198 0.2)
5-1 @ 1.96% (-0.159 -0.16)
4-2 @ 1.34% (0.064 0.06)
6-0 @ 1.2% (-0.272 -0.27)
Other @ 3.24%
Total : 75.77%
1-1 @ 7.53% (0.663 0.66)
0-0 @ 4.92% (0.243 0.24)
2-2 @ 2.88% (0.361 0.36)
Other @ 0.54%
Total : 15.86%
0-1 @ 3.18% (0.401 0.4)
1-2 @ 2.43% (0.394 0.39)
0-2 @ 1.03% (0.202 0.2)
Other @ 1.71%
Total : 8.36%

How you voted: Al-Nassr vs Esteghlal

Al-Nassr
84.2%
Draw
5.3%
Esteghlal
10.5%
38
Head to Head
Mar 3, 2025 4pm
Round of 16 1st Leg
Esteghlal
0-0
Al-Nassr
Oct 22, 2024 5pm
Group Stage
Esteghlal
0-1
Al-Nassr

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