Australian A-League | 1st Leg

May 16, 2025 at 10.35am UK

Melbourne Rectangular Stadium

Western Utd
0 - 3
Melbourne City

(Melbourne City win 4-1 on aggregate)

Ruhs (12'), Bozinovski (28'), Thurgate (86')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Ferreyra (16'), Cohen (54'), Leckie (72')
Schreiber (58'), Ferreyra (82'), Ugarkovic (89')

Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Western United and Melbourne City.

Form, Standings, Stats

Western United

All competitions

Last Game: Western Utd 3-2 Adelaide United
Friday, May 9 at 10.35am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Melbourne City

All competitions

Last Game: Melbourne City 5-1 Sydney FC
Saturday, May 3 at 8am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 42.21%. A win for Western United had a probability of 34.77% and a draw had a probability of 23%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.51%) and 0-2 (5.62%). The likeliest Western United win was 2-1 (7.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.

Result
Western United	Draw	Melbourne City
34.77% ( 8.79)	23.02% ( 1.26)	42.21% ( -10.05)

Both teams to score 64.79% (

0.94)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

63.62% (

-1.09)

36.38% (

1.09)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

41.49% (

-1.2)

58.51% (

1.2)

Western United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.8% (

4.77)

21.2% (

-4.77)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.91% (

6.89)

54.09% (

-6.89)

Melbourne City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.23% (

-4.03)

17.77% (

4.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.52% (

-7.45)

48.47% (

7.45)

Score Analysis

Western United 34.77%

Melbourne City 42.21%

Draw 23.01%

Western United	Draw	Melbourne City
2-1 @ 7.83% ( 1.39) 1-0 @ 5.85% ( 1.03) 2-0 @ 4.53% ( 1.29) 3-1 @ 4.05% ( 1.15) 3-2 @ 3.5% ( 0.63) 3-0 @ 2.34% ( 0.89) 4-1 @ 1.57% ( 0.59) 4-2 @ 1.36% ( 0.39) 4-0 @ 0.91% ( 0.42) Other @ 2.84% Total : 34.77%	1-1 @ 10.09% ( 0.54) 2-2 @ 6.76% ( 0.38) 0-0 @ 3.77% ( 0.2) 3-3 @ 2.01% ( 0.12) Other @ 0.38% Total : 23.01%	1-2 @ 8.72% ( -0.76) 0-1 @ 6.51% ( -0.57) 0-2 @ 5.62% ( -1.41) 1-3 @ 5.02% ( -1.25) 2-3 @ 3.9% ( -0.33) 0-3 @ 3.24% ( -1.41) 1-4 @ 2.17% ( -0.94) 2-4 @ 1.68% ( -0.42) 0-4 @ 1.4% ( -0.91) Other @ 3.96% Total : 42.21%