Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Western United win with a probability of 39.39%. A win for Macarthur had a probability of 37.75% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Western United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.98%) and 2-0 (5.06%). The likeliest Macarthur win was 1-2 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.88%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Western United | Draw | Macarthur |
| 39.39% ( | 22.86% ( | 37.75% ( |
| Both teams to score 65.9% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.87% ( | 35.13% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.87% ( | 57.13% ( |
| Western United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.55% ( | 18.45% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.36% ( | 49.64% ( |
| Macarthur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.81% ( | 19.19% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.14% ( | 50.86% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Western United | Draw | Macarthur |
| 2-1 @ 8.35% ( 1-0 @ 5.98% ( 2-0 @ 5.06% ( 3-1 @ 4.7% ( 3-2 @ 3.88% ( 3-0 @ 2.85% ( 4-1 @ 1.99% ( 4-2 @ 1.64% ( 4-0 @ 1.2% ( 4-3 @ 0.9% ( Other @ 2.84% Total : 39.39% | 1-1 @ 9.88% ( 2-2 @ 6.89% ( 0-0 @ 3.54% ( 3-3 @ 2.14% ( Other @ 0.42% Total : 22.86% | 1-2 @ 8.15% ( 0-1 @ 5.85% ( 0-2 @ 4.83% ( 1-3 @ 4.49% ( 2-3 @ 3.79% ( 0-3 @ 2.66% ( 1-4 @ 1.85% ( 2-4 @ 1.57% 0-4 @ 1.1% ( Other @ 3.48% Total : 37.75% |