Australian A-League | Gameweek 4

Nov 9, 2024 at 6am UK

AAMI Park

Victory
2 - 0
Brisbane Roar

Velupillay (38', 38'), Geria (76', 76')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Shour (28'), Shour (28'), Van Der Saag (85'), Van Der Saag (85')

Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Melbourne Victory and Brisbane Roar.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne Victory

All competitions

Australian A-League

Last Game: Victory 2-1 Macarthur
Sunday, November 3 at 5am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Brisbane Roar

All competitions

Australian A-League

Last Game: Brisbane Roar 2-3 Sydney FC
Friday, November 1 at 8.35am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 44.27%. A win for Brisbane Roar had a probability of 31.43% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.53%) and 2-0 (6.89%). The likeliest Brisbane Roar win was 1-2 (7.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne Victory would win this match.

Result
Melbourne Victory	Draw	Brisbane Roar
44.27% ( 0.73)	24.3% ( -0.02)	31.43% ( -0.71)

Both teams to score 58.83% (

-0.24)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.34% (

-0.18)

43.66% (

0.18)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.95% (

-0.17)

66.05% (

0.18)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.12% (

0.25)

19.88% (

-0.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.01% (

0.4)

51.99% (

-0.39)

Brisbane Roar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.43% (

-0.53)

26.58% (

0.53)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.21% (

-0.7)

61.79% (

0.71)

Score Analysis

Melbourne Victory 44.27%

Brisbane Roar 31.43%

Draw 24.29%

Melbourne Victory	Draw	Brisbane Roar
2-1 @ 9.14% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 8.53% ( 0.13) 2-0 @ 6.89% ( 0.16) 3-1 @ 4.92% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 3.71% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 3.26% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.99% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 1.5% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 1.32% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.01% Total : 44.27%	1-1 @ 11.3% 2-2 @ 6.05% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 5.28% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.44% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.29%	1-2 @ 7.49% ( -0.11) 0-1 @ 7% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 4.64% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 3.31% ( -0.1) 2-3 @ 2.67% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 2.05% ( -0.08) 1-4 @ 1.1% ( -0.05) Other @ 3.17% Total : 31.43%